October 30, 2004
bin Laden's October Surprise
The 'October Surprise' is the most dreaded and anticipated of American political phenomena - an event that inserts itself into the Presidential election campaign without notice, changing the complexion of the campaign with mere weeks or days to go.
Osama bin Laden provided this year's October Surprise yesterday with the release of his first videotaped message in almost three years. In the tape whose message was intended for American voters, bin Laden explained the rationale for the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York, he tore a strip of George W. Bush for not acting immediately when the towers were attacked (apparently he is a Michael Moore fan), and he counseled Americans that the security of their country was in their hands.
bin Laden appears healthy in the tape, but more importantly he strikes a rather statesman like tone for someone who is an admitted mass-murderer. There was no gun in the background as there has been in previous videos and he dropped his trademark quotations from the Qu'ran. In short, he appeared more like the leader of a political movement looking to secure support than an irrational terrorist.
The best analysis I have found so far comes from the BBC's Paul Reynolds, though I find one of his ideas difficult to agree with.
Mr. Reynolds argues bin Laden realizes "that John Kerry is not in fact offering much change in policy in the war on terror declared by President Bush," and that he knows his offer of a truce will be rejected and likely be the justification for a future attack. But I don't believe this explains his decision to insert himself in the American election. It makes no sense for him to try to influence an election if the outcome makes no difference. So I believe he is asking Americans to consider his terms for a truce and if they agree, to choose the President they feel they would most likely be able to convince to accept those terms.
By so aggressively attacking Mr. Bush for his handling of the crisis in the moments after jets hit the World Trade Centre, bin Laden certainly appears to be taking sides in the election campaign, but don't expect the Bush campaign to start running ads saying, "Terrorists prefer Kerry." They are too smart to see this as a black and white question.
Regardless of bin Laden's motives, the question remains: What impact will this have on the Presidential election? In their more honest moments, both campaigns told us they had no idea. We will have to wait until Tuesday night to get the first glimpse of the answer to that question.
Further Reading:
Bin Laden's October surprise (BBC)
Excerpts from Osama bin Laden's video statement (Associated Press)
Terror Tape Shakes Up Bush-Kerry Campaign (Associated Press)
Posted by maxthecat at October 30, 2004 10:24 AM
http://www.maxsmewsings.com/mt/archives/2004/10/bin_ladens_october_surprise.php