October 28, 2004

What might happen election night

A I wrote yesterday, Tuesday US Presidential Election is too close to call and the vote-counting and legal maneuvering could last weeks. At the end of the day (as I see it), there are four possible outcomes.

  1. One or the other candidate wins the popular and Electoral College vote: This is the hoped-for scenario. There will be no allegations that the President was not legitimately the choice of Americans.
  2. One candidate win the popular vote and the other the Electoral College vote: This is the 2000 scenario. Democrats have made it their mission over the last four years to point out that Al Gore actually won the 2000 election and should be the President. They have time and again challenged Mr. Bush's legitimacy as President. But that same set of circumstances could work in favour of Mr. Kerry this time around. If it does, it will be interesting to hear what Democrats have to say about it.
  3. The Electoral College vote is close and enough electors supporting the winning candidate defect and elect the other: This is the first of the nightmare scenarios. One or more "faithless electors" chosen to vote for one candidate play silly-bugger the day the College meets to select the President and Vice President. It would likely result in more court challenges and whichever candidate won as a result of a faithless elector would have a hard time governing.
  4. There is an Electoral College tie: This is my favourite of the nightmare scenarios. After all the counting, recounting, court challenges, appeals and appeals of appeals, the Electoral College looks like this: George Bush, 269 Electoral Votes; John Kerry, 269 Electoral Votes. Let the games begin anew!

    If this happens the process is for the House of Representatives to meet to choose the President (with each state getting one vote) and the Senate to meet to choose the Vice President. Instantly, the two campaigns would have their operatives prowling the corridors at Capitol Hill trying to secure the support of Representatives and Senators. As it stands now, Mr. Bush has the advantage over Mr. Kerry in the House but Mr. Edwards will likely have a more hospitable Senate than Mr. Cheney after Tuesday's vote.

A Bush-Edwards Administration, now that would be a site to see.

Posted by maxthecat at October 28, 2004 12:28 PM

http://www.maxsmewsings.com/mt/archives/2004/10/what_might_happen_election_night.php