October 27, 2004

Election will come down to the Electoral College - again

With less than a week to go before Americans vote in their Presidential Election, the polls make it clear the two candidates are neck-and-neck. So as with last time around, this election is going to be decided by the Electoral College vote.

The College is an anachronism to most - a solution to problem that no longer exists. And while that may be true, it is the system in place to choose the American President, so it is important to understand the potential outcomes.

With the polls the way they are today, there are 11 States (131 electoral votes) in which neither John Kerry or George Bush has a clear lead. Looking only at the States where there is a reasonably comfortable lead for either candidate, Kerry has 183 - 207 electoral votes solidly in his column while Bush has about 200. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

That leaves 131-155 electoral votes up for grabs in States that could go either way. In those States, the popular vote has shifted back and forth for weeks not because of the kind of voter volatility we saw in the Canadian election a few months ago, but because the election is so, small shifts make big differences. All of this to say, if you hear anyone say they know who will win the election, take with a very large grain of salt.

It also says three other things:

  • If either candidate puts his foot in it over the next few days, the result will be a disaster for their campaign. Expect more of same tired attacks on Iraq from Mr. Kerry and leadership from Mr. Bush, but don't expect anything new or any excitement.
  • Motivating voters to take the trouble to vote will be critical. Each party has a strategy for encouraging their supporters to go to the polls, but with only a few making such a large difference in the outcome, it is likely the campaigns will double or triple their efforts in States where the race is tight. The campaign that does a better job of getting out their vote will win the election.
  • Tuesday night will be a long one!

Posted by maxthecat at October 27, 2004 05:24 PM

http://www.maxsmewsings.com/mt/archives/2004/10/election_will_come_down_to_the_electoral_college_again.php