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October 4, 2004

Putting the Minority to the test

As our MPs gather in Ottawa this week to open the first Session of Parliament to feature a minority government since 1979, I have to admit I'm getting a little nervous.

The Bloc Québecois and the Conservatives have said they will introduce amendments to the the Throne Speech, to be delivered tomorrow, while the Liberals have said amendments to the Speech are matters of confidence and support for them could bring down the government. (The Bloc and the Tories combined constitute a majority in the Commons and thus have great influence on issues where they are like-minded.)

This might all be posturing and cooler heads might prevail, but the fact we are even hearing this kind of talk is disturbing. Given the Liberals' precarious position one would have thought they would have negotiated with the opposition before the speech was delivered instead of telling them to listen with the rest of Canada tomorrow. The Liberals also say they have a mandate to govern, a statement so ludicrous I could barely believe my ears when I heard it. If Canadians had wanted to give them free-reign they would have returned a majority Liberal government to Ottawa, not a precarious minority. It has been my experience that when political parties push the envelope of credulity, there is usually a strategy at play.

So what is the strategy for the Liberals?

They might be testing the new Commons to see what they can get away with and how willing the opposition is to take them to the brink of a new election - risky business, to be sure. In the past, minority Prime Ministers have chosen to work with the opposition, build up some good will before putting that investment of political capital to the test - so this seems unlikely.

It could be that they are so clueless about how to manage a Minority Parliament that they have found themselves in this situation by accident and are now flailing about trying to figure out what to do. If that is it the case watch for them to capitulate opposition demands for changes to the Throne Speech in order to avoid another trip to the polls. This is not beyond the realm of the possible, but I cannot believe they haven't brought in some experts on minorities to help them out.

It could be, as some have suggested, that they are spoiling for a fight in order to precipitate another election. There may be some fantastic proposal in the Throne Speech that will be a winner with a huge majority of Canadians and that the Liberals believe they can use to paint the Bloc and the Tories into a corner should they find themselves in an election a few weeks from now. [I have been trying to think of such a proposal and the only guaranteed winner I can think of is free beer - but don't get your hopes up...] I don't put this past the Martin Liberals. If there is one thing these guys know, it how to fight. They fought with the Chrétienites for years (and still do from time to time) and ran the most negative campaign of any of the parties during last Spring's election.

Whatever the case, the next week is going to set the tone for whatever happens next - fasten your seat belt.

Posted by maxthecat on October 4, 2004 at 08:11 AM | Printer-friendly version
Filed in: Politics / Canada

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