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June 23, 2004
Why the election is not over II
First, an apology: this entry is (at least partially) a self-serving "I told you so."
A week ago, I chided the media for having declared Stephen Harper the new Prime Minister of Canada in the wake of the two Leaders' Debates. In a race as tight as this one, where no single issue has dominated the political discourse, you have to expect the unexpected. As I noted last week, a lot can happen in one or two weeks during a campaign - and a lot has.
The latest polls have the Tories trailing (just barely) the Liberals once again and the media have decided to back away from their predictions of a Conservative government and are now saying the race is too close to call. In their defense, it was difficult to imagine the disciplined Conservative campaign coming as unglued as it did last week.
The Conservatives spent Wednesday, Thursday and most of Friday campaigning on the inevitability of their victory. Essentially, their post-debate message was, "Vote for us because we're going to win." To me that seemed rather presumptuous, to others (including some Conservatives I spoke to) it sounded arrogant.
By Friday, nightly tracking polls showed that message and Alberta Premier Ralph Klein's threat to break the Canada Health Act were causing the Tories to lose some of their soft support to the Liberals. Then, as voters in Ontario drove to their cottages for the weekend, they heard about the Child Pornography media release. Both Klein and the news release have continued to haunt the Conservatives this week.
The worst news for the Conservatives is that for the first time since the beginning of June, Mr. Harper is now the third choice of Canadians when they are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. Paul Martin leads, followed closely by "Unsure" (the invisible leader of the "Undecided" party).
I will again recall the words of former British PM Howard Wilson who said, "A week is a long time in politics."
So, while they've had a bad week, the Conservatives are still in the game. The next few days are going to be interesting, but not decisive in my view and election night will likely be the beginning of a new game: Let's Make a Deal. Perhaps Monty Hall is feeling up to hosting a reality show that really matters?
Posted by maxthecat on June 23, 2004 at 11:46 AM
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