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June 24, 2004
On Minority Governments
It is now clear that (barring any surprises) this will be closest election since 1963 when Prime Minister John Diefenbaker managed to hold on to power propped up by a strong 30-seat performance by Social Credit. Diefenbaker actually lost the popular vote by a miniscule 10,000 votes nationally and his government lost power ten months later.
Between 1957 and 1968 there were four minority governments averaging just 17 months in office. The first two were led by Louis St.Laurent and John Diefenbaker and were short lived (nine and ten months respectively) but it is the two Lester B. Pearson led minorities, each of which lasted about three years, that voters (guided by the media) remember fondly when they tell pollsters that minority governments are good for the country.
Will the minority we elect on Monday be good for the country? I doubt it.
Pearson's minorities were strong minorities - he had a significant plurality of seats. Pearson was able to move forward on an agenda because he was able to pick up the few votes he needed on a case by case basis. Had he needed 20 votes instead of the 1 - 3 votes he required, he would have been less successful and his government less stable.
Today we are looking at a tight plurality for whoever "wins." The new PM will need as many as 40 or 45 opposition votes to pass legislation - that is a daunting task. There will be no reasonable confidence that our new parliament will accomplish anything or that the government will survive votes of confidence, and that is a recipe for instability.
Which brings me to my primary concern. If the markets perceive our government as unstable they will react - they hate uncertainty. The dollar will drop, stock markets will fall and the economy will slow. That will cost jobs, reduce government revenue and potentially lead the country into recession.
Perhaps I'm wrong. I hope so.
Posted by maxthecat on June 24, 2004 at 11:01 AM
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